Going nicely, don't you think?

Keeping on the Sunny Side

By Rick Horowitz

Think of it as a building with two wings -- two wings that extend this way and that way off an impressive central entrance hall. You'd want this central entrance hall to be impressive; it is, after all, an important government building.

Let's put this building on a busy Washington street, a street filled with other important government buildings. And above the entrance of this particular building, right where the marble meets the granite, let's carve these words: Department of Scenarios.

Walk in one direction once you're inside the building, and you'll find yourself in the Office of Best-Case Scenarios. The corridors are brightly lit, and the gentle pastel walls are hung with dozens of pictures of happy people doing happy things. From the speakers hidden in the bright blue ceiling, you'll hear happy music, and sometimes calming music, and sometimes inspirational music. But mostly happy music. And why not? In the Office of Best-Case Scenarios, everything always turns out for the best.

Take Iraq, for instance.

In the Office of Best-Case Scenarios, the invasion of Iraq will be a smashing success. Our brave and well-trained soldiers join forces with a broad coalition of soldiers from around the world. Together, they quickly defeat the Iraqi army. They march into Baghdad. Within hours, they even capture Saddam Hussein. The Iraqi citizens pour out of their homes in celebration and gratitude. They shed tears of joy. They throw flower petals at the feet of their liberators, at the feet of our boys and girls in uniform. Flower petals!

Could anything be better than that?

Absolutely. This is the Office of Best-Case Scenarios. In the Office of Best-Case Scenarios, our brave and well-trained soldiers -- slender in number for such a critical task, but with American know-how and a can-do spirit -- not only bring freedom, but also democracy, and also stability, to the life of the average Iraqi. Stability without fear, without terror. Sunni and Shiite, Arab and Kurd -- they all pull together to make this democratic Iraq a shining example in the Middle East and throughout the world. Could anything be better than that?

Of course.

In the Office of Best-Case Scenarios, America -- bringer of freedom, respecter of cultures -- becomes a hero to downtrodden Muslims everywhere. The radicals and the terrorists are isolated; their support disappears. Who wants to blow himself up when a bright new day is dawning?

Peace on earth, plenty of oil -- and big tax cuts, too! Could anything be better than that?

Only one thing: if the people on the other side of the building would just shut up.

In the Office of Worst-Case Scenarios, the lights are dimmer, the moods are darker. The walls, cracked and stained, are otherwise bare, and the music -- if you can call it that -- is filled with foreboding. And why not? In the Office of Worst-Case Scenarios, everything has a downside.

Take Iraq, for instance.

In the Office of Worst-Case Scenarios, the invasion of Iraq might not be a smashing success. It might be a pool of quicksand -- or worse. Are we prepared for that? That's what the Office of Worst-Case Scenarios wants to know.

Our brave soldiers might not actually defeat the Iraqi army. Instead, the Iraqi army might melt back into the population to fight again another day. Are we prepared for that? Restoring order to Iraq might be harder than we think; the average Iraqi might start complaining that he wants electricity and running water, and no more looting, and peace. Are we prepared for that?

Some discontented (or even power-hungry) Iraqis might launch attacks on our soldiers from religious sites, in holy cities. If we ignore them, they win; if we don't ignore them, we risk destroying the sites, and the cities, and infuriating other Iraqis, other Muslims. Everyone knows they're not supposed to launch attacks from holy sites and holy cities; it's against the rules. Are we prepared for them to play by different rules? Could anything be worse than that?

Of course. This is the Office of Worst-Case Scenarios. There could be even more attacks, bolder attacks, on our soldiers; more and more Americans could die. There could be more American counterattacks; more Iraqis could die, too. Our need to stop the violence could grow increasingly desperate; to find out all we can, we might have to turn to interrogation. Interrogation might become humiliation. Humiliation might become torture. Are we prepared for that?

And what if somebody has a camera, and the pictures get out -- are we prepared for that?

In the Office of Worst-Case Scenarios, they keep asking the question.

In the Office of Best-Case Scenarios, they just turn the music up a little louder.

Posted 5/4/04. In cyberspace, they can hear you scream -- so tell your friends about "Rick's" today!

Rick Horowitz is a syndicated columnist, TV commentator, writing coach and public speaker

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