"Now you boys behave yourselves..."

Tough Talk. (Big Deal.)

By Rick Horowitz

"This is not a bluff."

Richard Holbrooke, American diplomat.

"Right."

Richard Horowitz, American columnist.

Step No. 1: Identify the Problem. Serbian police and military forces are slaughtering ethnic Albanians in Kosovo province. Thousands more have been driven from their homes; some have sought refuge in the mountains. With winter coming, many are likely to die.

Step No. 2: Declare the Situation Unacceptable. Strong statements condemning the Serbian actions should be issued by heads of other governments and international organizations. Whenever possible, these statements should express moral outrage, and should demand that Serbian leaders call off the killings immediately.

Step No. 3: Raise the Stakes. When Serbian leaders ignore statements issued pursuant to Step No. 2, heads of other governments and international organizations should issue firm, if vaguely worded, threats of military intervention: "Won't stand idly by...," "Ready to meet force with force...," "World community speaks with one voice...," etc. Details can be worked out later.

Step No. 4: Consult with Allies. Countries calling for a Serbian ceasefire and withdrawal should discuss, preferably in public, their differing views of how to proceed if Serbian leaders refuse -- whether air power is sufficient, whether ground troops should be risked, etc. These discussions will impress Serbian leaders with the vigor, resolve and unity of their potential adversaries.

Step No. 5: Refine Critical Procedures. Proper coordination is essential in an international effort of this magnitude; make sure that before any action is taken, one more approval must be acquired, ideally from a country or organization unwilling or unable to grant that approval. The United Nations and NATO can make major contributions in this area.

Step No. 6: Set a Deadline. As a further demonstration of seriousness, consider setting a deadline for full Serbian compliance with international demands. Deploy military forces to the region, and arrange to have videotape of well-armed ships and planes aired on nightly news broadcasts. Make clear that unless this deadline is met, military action is inevitable.

Step No. 7: Keep Diplomatic Channels Open. While increasing the pressure on the military side, keep lines of communication open to Serbian leaders. Make sure they understand that the international community means business this time, that just because Iraq "got away with it" on weapons inspections doesn't mean the Serbians can "get away with it" on genocide.

Step No. 8: Cock the Trigger. As the deadline approaches, pull diplomatic and international-aid personnel out of potential target areas. Make clear that Serbian leaders have no alternative but full and immediate compliance.

Step No. 9: Make the Deal. When Serbian leaders, under pressure of imminent attack, finally agree to a ceasefire and partial pullout of some number of troops and police, immediately extend the deadline by 10 days; this will impress Serbian leaders with the international community's flexibility. Announce that, despite appearances to the contrary, "NATO didn't blink." Ignore giggling sounds.

Step No. 10: Enforce the Deal. Consider inserting unarmed international observers to assess whether Serbian leaders are truly carrying out their commitments, and prepare a plan to rescue these observers if conditions suddenly worsen. Remind Serbian leaders that the use of international force "still looms large," and, if time permits, figure out exactly how such force can be used once observers and diplomats are on the ground in Kosovo and elsewhere in Serbia. (Don't even think about hostages.)

Step No. 11: Stay on Message. As Serbian forces slow down their pullout and step up their military activities, feel free to issue additional statements condemning Serbian actions and promising swift and sure retaliation. "We really mean it...," "Don't make us come over there..." and "We're going to count to three..." are all equally effective ways of putting Serbian leaders on notice that the slaughter must stop before every last Albanian is killed.

Step No. 12: Celebrate Peace. One way or the other, it should be quiet soon.

Posted 10/23/98. Fresh stuff right here twice weekly!