Wouldn't touch it with a...

Making the Numbers Add Up

By Rick Horowitz

It's all over but the counting. And since the counting -- and the recounting, and the lawsuits challenging the recounting, and the lawsuits challenging the lawsuits -- will probably be going on for a while, what should we do in the meantime?

You're in luck, boys and girls: It's time for the Ten-Foot Poll, America's most apprehensive exit survey of voter trends and attitudes! We've scoured the country, from the tiniest hamlet to the largest macbeth, looking for the kinds of insights the big news organizations just won't give you. This year's assortment of 4,231 randomly invented voters is our biggest yet, and helps us to better understand exactly where America stands on Election Day 2002. (Hint: south of Canada, north of Mexico.)

Ready for some of our key findings? Here we go! Hold on tight, and remember: We brake for speechwriters.

A favorite polling question in midterm elections is the "generic candidate" question. We asked it, too, with fascinating results. Voters who...
Favor the generic Republican candidate: 39%
Favor the generic Democratic candidate: 38%
Hope generic candidates cost less than name-brand candidates: 23%

With an evenly divided electorate, the prospect of a similarly split U.S. Senate loomed large over this year's voting. As our respondents saw it, the major result of such an outcome would be:
Endless gridlock: 26%
Occasional gridlock: 33%
Bipartisan cooperation: 14%
Nobody goes to the bathroom: 27%

The dominant figure in this campaign season has certainly been President Bush. Whether battling al Qaeda or stumping for fellow Republicans, the president remains enormously popular with voters. Indeed, consider our respondents' response to this hypothetical match-up for 2004:
Bush: 54%
Daschle: 38%
Hussein: 5%
Gore: 3%

The return of federal budget deficits after several years of surpluses seemed to be only a minor concern of voters, who retain confidence in Washington's ability to pay for:
A war against Iraq: 79%
More tax cuts for the wealthy: 77%
A war against Iraq and more tax cuts for the wealthy: 76%
A war against Iraq, more tax cuts for the wealthy and everyone gets a new SUV: 75%

As always, campaign ads had a significant impact on voter perceptions. Consider these preferences in one typical race:
The lying crook who wants to give our hard-earned retirement savings to his shady friends in fancy Wall Street boardrooms: 55%
The flag-trashing wimp who wants to take away our precious freedoms and weaken our defenses against international terrorists: 45%

Of course, the specific dynamics of individual races sometimes run counter to larger trends. Among the appeals our respondents viewed as especially effective:
Elizabeth Dole / "No, really -- I've always loved North Carolina": 26%
Gray Davis / "The other guy's even worse": 30%
Walter Mondale / "Strom Thurmond calls me 'Sonny'": 44%

And finally, a long and hard-fought election battle can leave candidates and voters reeling. With Campaign 2002 behind them at last, our respondents said they were most interested in:
A long nap: 18%
A cold beer: 29%
A strong disinfectant: 53%

Posted 11/5/02. Number "Rick's" among your must-see sites -- award-winning commentary twice every week.

Rick Horowitz is a syndicated columnist, TV commentator, writing coach and public speaker

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©2002 Rick Horowitz. All rights reserved.