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Polling, polling, polling...

Now It All Makes Sense!

By Rick Horowitz

The ballots are counted -- most of them, anyway -- and the results are in. Election 2006 is history. (And depending on where you sit, either comedy or tragedy.) But what's behind all those numbers? Even more numbers!

Yes, friends, it's time once again for the Ten-Foot Poll, America's most valuable survey of people heading for the door. Our analysts have pored over the opinions of these 2,165 randomly invented voters, and we've got results absolutely unmatched by any other exit poll.

Let's look first at changes in the voting process itself, which some voters found particularly challenging this year. Asked to evaluate the biggest change, our respondents said that "New electronic voting machines made voting..."
Easier than in previous years: 12%
Harder than in previous years: 17%
About the same as in previous years: 38%
Didn't realize my congressman's name is "Enter": 33%


Voters coast to coast felt themselves bombarded with information this campaign season, especially from those 30-second TV ads. Asked to estimate how many ads they saw on an average day, voters reported these results:
Fewer than 10: 8%
10-20: 22%
21-30: 24%
31-50: 28%
The remaining 18% were babbling incoherently, and were listed by our pollsters as "more than 50."

Meanwhile, voters said that the content and tone of this year's ads made them feel...
Better informed: 31%
More eager to vote: 26%
Unclean: 43%

But TV wasn't the only source of campaign news, especially for younger voters. Respondents 18 to 30 years old reported that they received much of their political news this year from one or more of the following sources:
e-mail: 78%
iPod: 41%
YouTube: 53%
Other vowels: 29%

Regardless of age, however, voters said they preferred a candidate who...
Shares my values: 40%
Doesn't share my values: 6%
Has "Hollywood values": 3%
Doesn't mention values: 51%

As for specific issues, the war in Iraq, as expected, was center stage for much of the campaign, and voters had to sort through competing "story lines" about the conflict. Asked, for instance, to identify the Republicans' strategy for Iraq, voters responded as follows:
"Full speed ahead": 17%
"Stay the course": 59%
"Change the subject:" 24%

And the Democrats fared little better:
"Cut and run": 48%
"Bob and weave": 29%
"Shake and bake": 23%

Depending on their party affiliations, Democrats and Republicans continue to see the world in very different terms, and this campaign only reinforced that tendency. Asked to identify "the biggest threat to world peace," Republicans ranked them this way...
Saddam Hussein: 21%
Nancy Pelosi: 24%
Same-sex marriage: 25%
Michael J. Fox: 30%

...while Democrats chose these:
Osama bin Laden: 22%
Kim Jong Il: 20%
Dick Cheney: 27%
Fox News: 31%

Likewise -- and not surprisingly -- Democrats and Republicans were sharply divided in identifying the people who had been most helpful to their own party's fortunes during the campaign. For Democrats:
Barack Obama: 13%
Jack Abramoff: 16%
Mark Foley: 51%
Ted Haggard: 20%

And for Republicans:
Karl Rove: 26%
John Kerry: 21%
Nancy Pelosi: 19%
John Kerry again: 34%

As always, unexpected or compelling images had significant influence on voters' opinions. For instance, we got these results when we asked voters, "Which of the following had the most impact on your vote?"
John Kerry telling a joke: 32%
Rush Limbaugh waving his arms: 33%
Osama bin Laden smiling in a cave: 35%

More than in recent years, voters seemed to be casting "strategic" votes, considering the impact of individual contests on the overall power structure in Washington. The next Congress, our respondents felt, would be "more effective" with:
Republicans in charge: 18%
Democrats in charge: 18%
Republicans in charge of one chamber and Democrats in charge of the other: 27%
Grownups in charge: 37%

Meanwhile, voters expected President Bush to see these election results as:
A validation: 21%
A rebuke: 20%
Irrelevant: 59%

Finally, when our voters were asked to look ahead to the 2008 campaign, they seemed less than eager to take us up on our invitation. For the moment, at least, they said they were:
Reserving their judgment: 13%
Considering their options: 15%
Blowing up their televisions: 72%

Posted 11/7/06. Get award-winning commentary from syndicated columnist Rick Horowitz twice every week!


Send Rick a note!Rick Horowitz is a syndicated columnist, TV commentator, writing coach and public speaker.

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